Two cascades of new HPPs in Kyrgyzstan: investment agreement signed
The Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan has given the green light to one of the most ambitious energy projects in the country’s recent history by signing investment agreements with OJSC Central Asian Investment Holding. We are talking about the construction of a cascade of Kazarman HPPs and a cascade of Kokomeren HPPs with a total capacity of 2,217 MW – a figure that can radically change the energy landscape not only of Kyrgyzstan, but of the entire region. The meeting of the Minister of Energy Taalaibek Ibraev with representatives of the holding, held in early August, was the culmination of agreements reached back in 2024.
The project is striking in its scale. It is planned to build three hydroelectric power stations on the Naryn River as part of the Kazarman cascade: Ala-Buginskaya HPP with a capacity of 600 MW, as well as Kara-Bulungskaya-1 and Kara-Bulungskaya-2 for 149 MW and 163 MW, respectively. Even more impressive is the cascade on the Kokomeren River, which includes three hydroelectric power plants with a total capacity of 1305 MW. These facilities, according to the plans of the Ministry of Energy, should become a powerful impetus for the country’s economy, ensuring energy security and creating new jobs, although some experts indicate that the main purpose of the Kazarman cascade of HPPs may be the export of electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan under the CASA-1000 project.
The Kazarmansky cascade of the HPP will be located on the Naryn River and will include 4 hydroelectric power stations. The company “Central Asian Investment Holding” is interested in the construction of three of them:
- Ala-Buginskaya HPP — 600 MW
- Kara-Bulungskaya-1 HPP — 149 MW
- Kara-Bulungskaya-2 HPP — 163 MW
- (The total power of the cascade is 912 MW)
The cascade of the HPP on the Kokomeren River will include 3 hydroelectric power stations:
- Karakol HPP — 33 MW
- Kokomeren HPP-1 — 360 MW
- Kokomeren HPP-2 — 912 MW
- (The total power of the cascade is 1305 MW).
The investor, in turn, presented an impressive package of social obligations, which looks like a generous gesture of goodwill. For five years, from 2025 to 2030, the holding undertakes to allocate $ 5 million annually for social needs. This includes targeted assistance to children, modernization of the technical base of relevant ministries, participation in local government programs, and even the construction of a strategically important 500 kV transmission line with a length of 340 km, which will be donated to the balance of the state.
It is noteworthy that in the official statement of the Ministry of Energy, detailing all the benefits of the transaction, there is absolutely no mention of the conducted or at least planned studies to assess the impact of HPP cascades on the environment. This fact causes serious concern, because we are talking about the construction of seven powerful dams on two key waterways of Kyrgyzstan.
Projects of such a colossal scale inevitably entail irreversible changes in river ecosystems, affect biodiversity, animal migration routes, the state of floodplain lands and even the local microclimate. The Naryn River is one of the main tributaries of the Syr Darya, and any interference with its hydrological regime can have transboundary consequences. Legitimate questions arise: how will life in the river valleys change? What will be the fate of endemic species of flora and fauna? Have the risks for downstream agriculture been calculated?
Against the background of clearly spelled out social bonuses and economic promises, the issue of the potential environmental cost of these transformations remains outside the official agenda. The public and the independent expert community have not been provided with any data that would allow at least a preliminary assessment of the degree and nature of the impact of the HPP cascade on the fragile mountainous nature of Kyrgyzstan. Thus, a large-scale project presented as an unconditional benefit starts in the complete absence of public discussion about its long-term environmental consequences.
Alexander Eskendirov (Rivers.Help!)
Original (in Russian): Два каскада новых ГЭС в Кыргызстане: подписано инвестсоглашение
