Rogun Dam Study Ignores Key Risks, Threatens Regional Stability
The transboundary impact assessment for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) fails to meet World Bank environmental and social standards and contains fundamental shortcomings, according to a new report by the international environmental coalition Rivers without Boundaries. The assessment relies on outdated data from 2014 and uses static models that do not account for climate change dynamics or the actual hydrological conditions of the Amu Darya basin.
The project’s current evaluation overlooks critical external factors, notably the construction of the Qosh Tepa canal in Afghanistan, which is expected to significantly alter the region’s water balance. The developers’ proposal to consider the dam’s impact as “neutral” is described as misleading. The operation of the Rogun reservoir is projected to extend the lifespan of the existing Vakhsh cascade of hydropower plants by 60–100 years, thereby cementing a flow regime detrimental to downstream ecosystems, including the Tigrovaya Balka Nature Reserve – a UNESCO World Heritage site.
The impact assessment has been criticized for excluding the most acute and challenging scenarios. An assertion that the world’s tallest dam will have a neutral impact contradicts the logic of a cumulative effects assessment. Without strict, legally binding commitments for environmental flows and managed artificial floods, the project threatens to prolong the degradation of unique natural areas for another century, violating the conservation principles of international financial institutions.
Significant risks to biodiversity and the Ramsar Convention–protected wetlands of the Amu Darya delta have also been identified. The Rogun HPP assessment lacks clear mechanisms to guarantee water supply to these vital ecosystems, particularly during dry periods. Furthermore, serious deficiencies in the public consultation process with stakeholders in downstream countries undermine the project’s claims of social acceptability.
Consultations were not conducted in the affected zones of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and critical risks associated with the seasonal redistribution of water flow and the commissioning of the Qosh Tepa canal were omitted from the analysis. This approach sets a dangerous precedent for advancing a major regional infrastructure project without a solid foundation of transboundary cooperation and consent from neighboring states.
To address these issues, the report recommends a comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment for the entire Amu Darya basin. It calls for legally binding flow management plans that integrate climate change adaptation and biodiversity conservation measures. Without a radical revision of the project assessment and the introduction of robust mitigation and compensation mechanisms, the Rogun HPP risks becoming a source of long-term environmental and social tension in Central Asia.
