Energy crisis in Kyrgyzstan: is there a plan B?
Kyrgyzstan in early December faced a shortage of electricity, which reached 3.9 billion kWh. When will the country be able to refuse to import electricity and solve the crisis issue? And what is the role of hydropower here?
Rolling power outages
According to the Ministry of Energy of Kyrgyzstan, the use of electricity in the country reached a historic maximum — on December 11-12. Its daily consumption was at the level of 78.931 million kWh, and its peak capacity was 3612 MW. Due to heavy loads on the electrical networks in the country, rolling blackouts began.
The Minister of Energy of Kyrgyzstan Taalaibek Ibraev noted that currently electricity consumption is growing at a high rate and compared to last year it increased by 2-2.5 million kWh per day. Hydroelectric power plants, including Toktogulskaya, Shamaldy-Sayskaya and Tash-Kumyrsky, are capable of generating 3,460 MW/hour, while consumption is 3,600 MW/hour. Hydrogenators of JSC “Electric Stations” operate at the peak of their technical capabilities with maximum output.
President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov named the reasons for this situation.
— The reason why there is a shortage of electricity is that not a single hydroelectric power station has been built in Kyrgyzstan for 30 years. There would not have been such a crisis in winter if we had built one small hydroelectric power station with a capacity of 30 MW every year for 30 years. Hydroelectric power plants, as well as wind and solar power plants, have been massively built in the country for the last two years, but even in this case we cannot reduce the deficit. Since 2020, many social, industrial and infrastructure facilities have been built, as a result of which the demand for electricity is increasing every year. Along with this, the population of the country does not use electricity sparingly, showing indifference,” he explained.
How will the problem be solved
Kyrgyz Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev said that the authorities intend to cover the electricity deficit this season by importing 1.5 billion kWh from Kazakhstan, 1.7 billion kWh from Turkmenistan and 800 million kWh from Uzbekistan. Despite this, there is still not enough capacity to fully cover the demand.
The head of the department stressed that the existing substations are experiencing extreme load.
— Previously, substations operated with a maximum load of 70%, which made it possible to have a reserve of power. Now the load reaches 90-95%. In this regard, 5 new substations with a capacity of 110 kW were built this year, additional construction of new substations with a capacity of 500 kW in Balykchy and Batken is planned in the near future,” he said at a briefing in Bishkek.
What the experts say
Doctor of Economics of Kyrgyzstan, Professor Asylbek Ayupov noted that the country is forced to import electricity from neighboring countries at market prices.
— Many energy-intensive high-rise buildings have been built in Kyrgyzstan in recent years, the population is increasing. At the same time, electricity consumption increases sharply, which leads to its rolling blackouts,” the expert said.
The expert sees a possible solution to the crisis situation in the energy sector not in hydropower, but in increasing its own power generation capacity through the construction of a thermal power plant (TPP) based on the use of local coal deposits.
— I think that under the control of the state it is necessary to build a thermal power plant on the basis of the Kara-Kechinskoye field, where coal is mined in an open way. This makes the cost of its production lower than at other fields developed mainly by the mine method. Having studied foreign experience, it is possible to build a processing plant for burning coal using high technologies on the spot, providing electricity and heat to the region,” the professor expressed his opinion.
He added that simultaneously with the construction of thermal power plants, it is necessary to build a railway that will connect the south and north of the country, with its further connection to the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project.
— The construction of thermal power plants and railways will contribute to the development of tourism in areas with picturesque nature, small and medium—sized businesses, the creation of new jobs and increase the employment of the local population, – he believes.
Asylbek Ayupov also spoke about hydropower, noting that its resources are exhausted.
— There is not enough water from year to year during the dry period, although it is recognized that Kyrgyzstan has rich water resources. Due to global warming, the sharp melting of glaciers, low precipitation, especially during the hot period, rivers are shallowing. The construction of small hydroelectric power plants on them raises big questions and doubts about the development of the necessary capacities. The only major river Naryn originates in the mountains, whose glaciers are gradually shrinking due to climate change,” the professor said.
Referring to the development of a “green” economy using wind and solar energy, he expressed the opinion that the projects are very expensive and local, requiring costly maintenance.
— Renewable energy sources cannot provide electricity to large enterprises, urban areas. The idea of a “green” economy is good from the point of view of ecology, but the use of renewable energy sources is adequately possible only for developed countries where the people are solvent. In Kyrgyzstan, 30% of the population is below the poverty line, people’s incomes are low, respectively, they will not be able to pay for high tariffs,” the professor expressed his opinion.
Ulukman Mamytov, head of the New Economics Research Department of the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, believes that in order to solve problems in the energy sector, it is necessary to carry out a systematic reform of development programs.
— It is necessary not to divert resources to secondary areas, but to focus on those requiring increased attention, including the energy sector. Programs should be well-developed, that is, comprehensive. Starting with scientific research works, including the study of the prospects for the development of the energy industry, including hydropower, traditional or alternative energy sources, ending with long-term investment in these industries. It is also possible to consider options for investing earned resources from the sale of the same gold in these priority sectors, updating equipment, educating personnel,” he noted.
At the same time, it must be said that the Kyrgyz authorities are still trying to solve problems in the energy sector by building a number of small hydropower plants and modernizing existing ones. So, such small hydroelectric power stations as Bala-Saruu, Kaynama, Issyk-Ata, Kok-Art, Isfayram, Kurak-Tektir and Kyshtutskaya are being commissioned. Toktogul HPP is currently undergoing a complete reconstruction, after which a total capacity of 240 MW will be added. This year, the modernization of the Uch-Korgon HPP has begun, after a general repair of which 36 MW will be added. Work is underway to put into operation the second hydroelectric unit of the Kambar-Ata HPP-2 with an additional capacity of 120 MW.
However, so far Kyrgyzstan has to buy electricity to avoid an energy collapse. In the coming year in 2025, as stated by the Minister of Energy, the missing 3.9 billion kWh will also be imported.
— According to intergovernmental agreements, the following will be imported to Kyrgyzstan: 1.7 billion kWh from Turkmenistan, delivery will begin on January 1, 2025; 1.7 billion kWh from Kazakhstan and Russia, the delivery schedule will be agreed at quarterly meetings; 500 million kWh from Uzbekistan, about 300 million kWh has already been delivered to the republic, — said The minister.
It should be recalled that from August 1, 2023 to December 31, 2026, a state of emergency in the energy sector was introduced in Kyrgyzstan.
Gulmira Abdrakhmanova (Kazinform)
