Consultations on the Rogun HPP project were held in Tashkent

Consultations on the Rogun HPP project were held in Tashkent. Initiated by the World Bank Group on Environmental and Social Issues. The purpose is to discuss and assess the environmental and social impact on the states that fall under the indirect influence of the Rogun hydroelectric power station and dam under construction.

Consultations were held separately for ministers and for representatives of civil society. The participants of the ministerial consultations did not have a question: “Where is Rogun, and where is Tashkent and what is the connection here?!” And the local community expressed surprise, why suddenly consultations in Tashkent, because Rogun is in Tajikistan.

The reasons are serious. International banks will coordinate their lending activities with the Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context. It has a number of requirements for large cross-border projects that can cause a significant impact on the environment. The Rogun hydroelectric power station and the dam are just such.

Here is a quote from the Convention:

“Impact” means any effects of the planned activity on the environment, including human health and safety, flora, fauna, soil, air, water, climate, landscape, historical monuments and other material objects, or the relationship between these factors; it also covers the effects on cultural heritage or socio-economic conditions resulting from the change these factors.”

The Convention also prescribes interaction with stakeholders, cross-border cooperation in the decision-making process. Although Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have not signed this Convention, and it was adopted in 1991 in Espoo, the World Bank proceeds from international law.

All affected stakeholders should have a say in the decision-making process in accordance with article 5 of the Convention. The opinion of the public is just as important as the opinion of ministers that there is a cascade of hydroelectric power stations in the mountains of Tajikistan on the Vakhsh River, the uppermost of which is the Rogun one under construction.

Conversations about it have been going on since the seventies of the last century. That’s when Uzbekistan had a direct relationship to the object. It was designed by the Tashkent Hydro Project, a branch of the Moscow Institute. So much water has flowed since then. The height of the dam from the base to the crest is already considerable. And the plans are even grander. Now the facility is being designed by the Russian Hydro Project in order to raise the ridge to 335 meters! It will rise 1300 meters above sea level, and the water in the reservoir will splash at around 1290 meters.

Finances are needed for implementation. A group of international banks and donor agencies, of which there are about a dozen and a half, are ready to support the project with loans, provided that the updated Environmental and Social Impact Assessment is agreed upon by the interested parties.

The project itself and the conditions under which lending is guaranteed were discussed at the consultations.

We remind readers: where the Vakhsh merges with the Panj, the river gets the name Amu Darya.  The Amu Darya in Central Asia is not only the longest, but also the most full-flowing transboundary river. Its annual runoff is plus or minus 63 cubic kilometers. A significant part of this runoff — according to the quotas approved by the countries — falls on Uzbekistan.

Tajikistan’s quota is nine and a half cubic kilometers. Since the eighties of the last century, when the first decision was made to quota water resources, it was not chosen at first. But in recent years, Tajikistan has almost completely chosen its quota, which is due both to the simple irrigation areas and the increase in evaporation due to warming. And this is clearly visible in the diagram.

It is expected to take two decades to fill the reservoir. It is expected that it will stretch from the dam upstream of the Vakhsha for 70 kilometers and flood an area of 170 km2, including side gorges. When filling the reservoir, 50 thousand people will need to be relocated.

Judging by the film, the screening of which preceded the consultation, the construction has an incredible scale.

The huge tunnels, the underground power plant and the transformer hall are also impressive. On mountain ledges, powerful equipment seems like a toy.  Fifteen thousand workers and engineers are employed at the construction site.  And when they are completed, half a thousand specialists will be engaged in the operation of the facility.

The power plant will consist of six turbines with a capacity of 630 MW each. In the meantime, two 200 MW turbines have been installed and are operating.

Since, according to the standards of the World Bank, interaction with stakeholders is envisaged
parties and disclosure of information, then consultations in Tashkent are long overdue.

What issues have already caused concern? Resettlement; water separation along the Amu Darya;  operation of Rogun; Nurek hydroelectric power station located below; climate change; Aral Sea; safety of the dam, at the base of which is a layer of rock salt; seismicity; water supply to the Tigrovaya Balka Nature Reserve…

Probably, we were not original in Tashkent, but first of all I wanted to understand why such a high dam. It is well known: the higher the dam, the higher the risk. Rogun will be the highest in the world. What is the record for? The answer to this question is: “For the sake of generating electricity.”

Tajikistan is going to sell electricity to near and far countries. This is not quite possible yet, judging by the electricity generation in 2023-2024 at the lower Sangtudinskaya HPP. The utilization rate of the installed capacity of this station is less than fifty percent. Idle water discharges cannot be avoided.

Another argument in favor of building a dam: chocolate Vakhsh brings sediments. Before Rogun, the Nurek dam was the highest in the Vakhsh cascade. It was also the highest on the planet until 2013 — three hundred meters. It is less than half a century old (the ninth unit was introduced in 1979). What causes doubts about its durability? The useful volume of the reservoir decreases every year.  

At the consultations of the World Bank in Tashkent, silting proved why we need a dam on the Vakhsh higher and higher. Representatives of Tajikistan explained: “If the deposits are intercepted by the Rogun reservoir, the Nurek reservoir will last for another forty years. Then the water will begin to flow by gravity over the crest of the dam. But if there is no Rogun, Nurek will silt up much faster.”  “In how many years will Rogun silt up?” — “In a hundred years.”  

When designing the Rogun HPP, the Institute of Hydroproject recorded a high level of sediment deposition on Vakhsh — one hundred grams per cubic meter of water per year. It is believed that this is a consequence of erosion in a geologically young environment. The Institute also recorded an annual evaporated volume of 52.3 g/m3 in the Nurek reservoir. Experts have forecasts for Rogun: “Evaporation from its surface will be 170-200 million cubic meters per year.” Evaporation is likely to increase due to global climate change across all cascade dams. Is the dynamics calculated? The dynamics of consultations in Tashkent with representatives of civil society was not discussed.

Convincing, they talked about the risks: “The Rogun reservoir will receive a catastrophic runoff in the event of a breakthrough of moraine lakes, securing the Nurek reservoir.” 

The fact that the Nurek dam is unsafe was determined at the beginning of the two thousandth within the framework of the GEF-IFAS project “Management of water resources and the environment in the Aral Sea basin” and its component “Dam safety”. 

In 2016, due to the accident at the Nurek HPP, most of the territory of Tajikistan was left without electricity. In March 2019, the project “Modernization and restoration of the Nurek HPP” was launched.  It is financed by the World Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the Eurasian Development Bank. By 2030, it is expected to replace all nine hydroelectric units with an increase in capacity.  The sums for modernization are called at $ 341 million and twice as much. At the end of the work, security will increase.

“How will the safety of the Rogun HPP be ensured?” Seismicity here is higher than that of Nurek. An earthquake of 9 points on the Richter scale was chosen as the calculated one. The dam design was calculated on it.

“If an emergency suddenly happens?” Nothing concrete was heard on this question. The emergency preparedness plan for the cascade of hydroelectric power plants on Vakhsh is not yet ready. The basis for it is risk assessment. While the draft is being compiled.  “It is hardly permissible to rush to make a decision on financing until the basin countries have familiarized themselves with the full assessment and have held full—fledged hearings, as prescribed by the above-mentioned Convention,” experts from international non-governmental organizations warned at the World Bank consultations in Tashkent.

The author of these lines argues in a philistine way. There are cases of large dams breaking in the world. And in Uzbekistan, the breakthrough of the newly built Sardoba reservoir dam on May 1, 2020 has not yet been forgotten. Its volume is less than one cubic kilometer. Due to the breakthrough, two dozen villages suffered on Uzbek territory, 60 thousand people were evacuated. There were human casualties and economic losses. The population of neighboring Kazakhstan also suffered. The emergency plan did not work. International safety standards too.

Let’s compare the volumes of Sardoba and Rogun. On the plain — less than a cubic kilometer. High in the mountains, the volume of the Rogun reservoir when it is filled will be 13.3 cubic kilometers.  It’s scary to imagine the domino effect and possible damage downstream. Afghanistan and Uzbekistan are the closest. Expert opinion: “The S-shaped shape of the valley and the narrow gorge will limit the displacement of the dam during an earthquake.” You can’t argue with that. But Sardobinskaya did not break through during an earthquake, there was enough heavy rainfall. The abnormal losses are disproportionate.

Between the Rogun and Nurek dams, it is planned to build another relatively small Shurobskaya dam and its hydroelectric power station.  The price is being discussed in the media — the figure of a billion dollars is called. How much does the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric complex cost?

The total cost of the project was initially estimated at ten billion dollars. Now the amount is indicated at 11-12 billion, and it is growing by about 15% per year.

To date, 5.5 billion has been invested in the construction and resettlement program. Loans are provided by the World Bank, the European Investment Bank and a number of other financial institutions. This amount is comparable to the country’s GDP. In 2023, Tajikistan’s gross domestic product reached 130 billion somoni ($10.8 billion). So according to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the republic. Will it be possible to repay loans? They’re not a gift.

Calculation for the sale of electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Board of Directors of the World Bank Group approved the financing of the Central Asia–South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade project (CASA-1000). Power transmission lines will stretch for more than 1.2 thousand km.

Meanwhile, 355 dams and reservoirs are under construction in Afghanistan, of which 117 are being built by the Ministry of Water Resources and Energy. Among the hydroelectric power plants under construction there are small ones, there are large ones. In Pakistan, with Chinese help, large capacities of new large hydro and solar power plants are being commissioned annually. It will add its own electricity — bargaining will begin because of the purchase price from neighbors. What will be the payback?

This issue was not discussed at the consultations — however, their time is limited. But how water and energy problems are solved in Afghanistan is important for the entire region. The Qosh-Tepa canal is currently under construction at full speed with the planned annual water intake of ten cubic kilometers from the Amu Darya River. Afghanistan is not a party to the Agreement signed within the framework of IFAS on water allocation. I determined my quota for myself by the capacity of the channel under construction.

Representatives of Tajikistan at consultations in Tashkent stressed that the country would not exceed its quota when filling the reservoir, and that during the growing season — in spring, summer, and autumn — water would drain from the reservoir as usual. Promises are promises, but in practice it happens, as it has already happened. For example, the Toktogul reservoir on the Syr Darya, another transboundary river in Central Asia and in another country, Kyrgyzstan, simultaneously, without any consultations, in the winter of 1995, changed the regime from irrigation to energy. Then the winter floods began on the Syr Darya, causing damage downstream — to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

The system of water separation, carried out since 1992 by the Interstate
Coordination Water Management Commission (ICWC). Friendship is friendship, but in difficult situations, countries proceed from their own interests, not respecting the agreement. The topic of revising quotas for water resources of transboundary rivers is also increasingly heard.

It is possible that under the pressure of its own circumstances, Tajikistan may also fail to keep its promise and start using the Rogun HPP in the “energy mode”, redistributing the main flow from summer to winter. Experts on the basis of their Environmental Impact Assessment assured that this is impossible. Meanwhile, what kind of risk is this, and how not to take it into account? The Impact Assessment should consider all possible modes of operation of the HPP cascade after the construction of Rogun and their consequences for the basin countries.

“What inflow will the Aral Sea receive from the Amu Darya upon completion of the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric complex?” And such a burning question was raised during the consultations. But the response of the representatives of Tajikistan and the bank’s experts did not satisfy:  “The fact that Tajikistan did not choose according to its quota, and now it will, Aral will not notice.”  In the last five years, two cubic kilometers have been delivered to the lower reaches of the Amu Darya. And this is much less than those determined by the IFAS decision. If the upper reaches begin to take away one cubic kilometer annually to fill the Rogun reservoir, this will negate all the efforts of Uzbekistan to maintain the ecosystems of the delta. The lakes in the delta are already on the verge. Even less water — they will dry up forever.

“What if for the sake of filling the Rogun reservoir in the upper reaches, the water intake from the Vakhsh will increase?” The experts of the evaluation studies did not take into account such a regime. If they were accepted, they would have to seriously take care of the state of the Tajik reserve  Tiger beam.

There is reason to worry about losses for irrigation and agriculture in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan with a decrease in flow along the Amu Darya. It is unlikely that the price of food security is calculated in the Assessment of the Impact on the environment and the social sphere. I would check in the course of a thorough study.

At the meeting, the basin water management organization — BVI Amu Darya was mentioned more than once. “She has accumulated experience in managing the river.” Within certain limits. It is difficult to observe the entire river from the Uzbek city of Urgench, where the BVI is stationed. State borders are an obstacle. What kind of monitoring the reservoirs of the Vakhsh cascade will be in the future was not discussed. It is believed that it will be.

In December 2024, the Board of Directors of the World Bank Group will consider financing the project. Directors will gather to decide: to be or not to be. Is it possible to hurry with a decision when there are so many uncertainties and obvious risks?

Natalia SHULEPINA (Sreda.uz )