Will there be floods in Kazakhstan in 2025?

Spring floods in Kazakhstan have become a national disaster this year. Thousands of homes were flooded, the state was forced to evict people from dangerous areas. Through incredible efforts, the damage was restored, but the question arises whether the floods will happen again next year. Kazinform correspondent talked with industry experts on the causes and ways to avoid natural disasters: 

In the post-Soviet period, the construction of reservoirs slowed down

Reservoirs play an important role during floods. It is known that 33% of reservoirs in Kazakhstan were built in 1950-1970, and 48% — in 70-90 years. Now there are 405 reservoirs in the country. The oldest of them — Ashybulak and Terekara in Almaty region — were built back in 1910.

An interesting comparison is that if in the distant 1910-1920 years 2 reservoirs were built on the territory of Kazakhstan, then in 2000-2010 there were also only 2. In general, in Soviet times, the construction of reservoirs was carried out intensively. It is noticeable that during the years of independence, the pace has decreased: since 1991, only 16 reservoirs have been built.

Whether there are enough 400 reservoirs in the republic is not known for certain. Judging by the fact that even large reservoirs are overflowing their banks, these reservoirs are not enough. The position of the responsible department is clear — their number needs to be increased. In October of this year, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, together with interested government agencies, revised the concept of water resources management development for 2024-2030. To ensure the country’s water security, the concept includes clauses on the construction of 42 new reservoirs, the reconstruction of 37 reservoirs and the modernization of more than 14 thousand kilometers of irrigation canals.

Without repair since the last century

According to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, currently the number of hydraulic structures, dams and dams with defects has reached 537. All of them require urgent repair. In addition, during the inspection it was found that 535 out of 1,502 GTS, that is, more than a third, do not have the relevant technical documentation. Such objects are considered to be left without control by the state.

According to the agency, the bulk of these GTS is in communal ownership. Therefore, akimats should monitor the condition of these dams and dams, canals and reservoirs, and if defects are detected, they should be repaired. But local authorities do not have enough specialists to fulfill these obligations, and this is also hampered by a lack of money. The above 1,502 objects require regular inspections. They include 405 reservoirs, 247 dams, 461 dams, 118 water nodes, 271 ponds. As it turned out, of these main supporting GTS, 331 are in republican ownership, 936 are in communal ownership, and 229 are in private ownership. And 6 more turned out to be ownerless.

Many GTS have not been overhauled since the last century, for more than 30-50 years; they are still in operation and have turned into high-risk facilities. Some of the dams, dams and reservoirs have been transferred to private ownership. For example, the dam of the Magadzhansky reservoir in Aktobe region, transferred to the trust management of the entrepreneur, was not properly cared for. As a result, on April 5, 2024, the dam was breached, three villages in the Khromtau district and a summer cottage association near Aktobe were flooded. The dam, which resulted in the destruction of 15.8 million cubic meters of water, was commissioned in 1985 and has not been repaired since.

One of the problems, it seems, is that the owners of reservoirs are not responsible, getting off with light fines. According to paragraphs 3-4 of Article 359-1, which replaced Article 299 of the Code of Administrative Offenses “Operation of retaining hydraulic structures that meet the criteria for classifying dams as declared, without a safety declaration,” a fine of 25 MCI (92,300 tenge) is imposed for violation of this norm.
The most severe punishment is in case of repeated violation after the application of administrative punishment, a fine of 400 MCI (1,476,800 tenge) is imposed. Now work is underway to increase this measure, and yet, only the amount will increase, and criminal liability for owners who leave the reservoir unattended is not provided.

Does Kazakhstan need reservoirs?

Perhaps this year’s floods have served as a lesson — those responsible for the water industry have become more active. For example, specialists from the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, together with scientists from the Netherlands, are studying the experience in forecasting and preventing floods. However, it is difficult to predict whether to expect floods next year.

— Whether there will be a big flood in 2025 or not is still too early to predict. Because the amount of snow that will fall during the winter has not yet been determined. The danger of a spring flood depends on how much snow falls in winter, how quickly the snow melts. Despite this, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation is starting a lot of work. Now the water level in the rivers is being monitored, work is underway to strengthen dams and water channels. Work is underway on reservoirs. In the central, northern, eastern and western regions, we reduce the water level in each reservoir to 70%. We came to this decision based on the results of many years of analysis. We will change the mode of operation of the reservoirs after Kazhydromet gives hydrological forecasts,” said Saken Atel, head of the Department of Regulation and Accounting of the Use of Water Resources of the Committee on Water Resources of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Much has been said and written about this before. In 2021, academician Malik Borlibayev said that reservoirs violate natural processes. And in some countries they are completely eliminated.

— In some countries there is a tendency to liquidate reservoirs due to environmental issues. And yet, in Kazakhstan, reservoirs are needed in order to maintain balance, protect nature and improve infrastructure. Before the construction of each reservoir, experts assess its impact on the environment. This process is important for the protection and restoration of the ecosystem. Currently, reservoirs are being built using modern technologies, according to environmental standards. They are used when there is a shortage of water to preserve agriculture, provide water to residents. With their help, the flow of rivers is regulated, this is very necessary during spring floods. Therefore, the construction of reservoirs is useful for Kazakhstan now from any point of view,” Atel added.

The expert noted that floods, as part of the natural cycle, are always repeated. Due to the melting of snow and precipitation, the water level in the rivers rises sharply. In order to prevent floods, new protective dams were built in 7 regions this year. More than 30 kilometers of dams have been built in Karaganda and Pavlodar regions to protect the population from flooding. In addition, 1,200 kilometers of river beds have been cleaned this year, 78 kilometers have been deepened.

There are no exact forecasts

In general, there are many scientific organizations working in the field of hydrology in our country. One of them is JSC “Institute of Geography and Water Safety”. We contacted the Deputy Chairman of the Board of JSC Sayat Alimkulov and asked the main question.

— When it comes to water, no one takes into account that there is no way to give accurate forecasts here. It rains in autumn, the ground freezes in winter, snow falls, which does not have time to melt before the spring rains. In addition, as a result of natural processes, it melts and freezes, there are various thaws. The spring flood is also affected by the sun. The situation develops with the participation of thousands of factors. Each of them is impossible to accurately predict. The accuracy of even a three-day forecast does not exceed 70%. Even the World Hydrometeorological Center is well aware of this situation. He does not give forecasts in autumn or winter, what spring will be like. Gives his conclusion only when spring comes. We want to prevent floods. To do this, we must, first of all, assess the danger of floods. In Kazakhstan, there is a map that indicates the regions where floods are likely. We can explain it only on a scientific basis,” S. Alimkulov said.

Other possibilities are not taken into account

Lack of knowledge and technology play a critical role. With the help of images taken by the Earth remote sensing satellite, it is possible to make forecasts and monitor threats. This is an intelligent calculation of the science of remote sensing of the Earth. The capabilities of the KazEOSat-1 satellite, which has been in orbit since 2014, are limited. However, it can accurately indicate the foci where floods will occur.

The national company “Kazakhstan Garysh Sapary” photographs the surface of the Earth every day, including the territory of Kazakhstan. The images are donated to the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Other interested bodies receive images on request. In the photos, you can clearly see where there is snow and where there is not. However, it is unknown whether akimats use the capabilities of KazEOSat-1.

The role of RSE “Kazhydromet” is also important in the issue of flood forecasting. The Kazinform editorial board tried to get in touch with this institution to find out the opinions of specialists. But the press service of the RSE left our request unanswered. Thus, there is no clarity in the question of whether the big flood will be repeated in 2025. But the preparation by the Ministry of Water is underway, measures are being taken to prevent flooding.

Muratbek Makulbekov (Kazinform)