Rogun’s shadow over Amu Darya: why the Dam megaproject raises concerns
Last week, the long-awaited news came to our foundation: the World Bank Inspection Council accepted for consideration the complaint of residents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, whose interests are represented by our regional organization. The complaint concerns the World Bank’s $350 million investment in the project “Sustainable Financing of the Rogun Dam” (P181029) and a related technical assistance project (P178819) aimed at preparing financing and updating environmental and social documents in 2014. Together with the applicants, we claim that the World Bank and a number of co-financing institutions, which have pledged to provide more than $1 billion in addition, approved the financing of the Rogun Dam completion project despite serious gaps in the environmental impact assessment of the project and without taking into account the potentially catastrophic consequences of the project for the entire Central Asian region.
Right now, the main problem with the completion of the Rogun Dam is that the existing Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) is incomplete, based on outdated data and concepts from a decade ago and inadequately reflects the key risks of the project. The documentation does not fully take into account the interests of the local population living downstream, especially in the environmental disaster zone of the Aral Sea region. The reduction and seasonal redistribution of the flow of the Vakhsh River during construction, filling of the reservoir (which will take at least 15 years) and operation of the Rogun Dam will inevitably create a shortage of water in the lower reaches of the Vakhsh and Amu Darya. Even according to preliminary estimates by the World Bank itself, only at the stage of filling the Rogun reservoir, the flow of the Amu Darya into the Aral Sea will decrease by 0.8–1.2 cubic km annually, which will be at least 25% of the current inflow into the delta. The loss of such a huge amount of water will aggravate the already fragile state of natural and anthropogenic ecosystems, lead to further land degradation, soil salinization and desertification.
Residents of the lower reaches of the Amu Darya, including our applicants, have been feeling the consequences of the Aral catastrophe caused by the ill-considered Soviet hydraulic engineering throughout their lives. Deterioration of health due to dust storms and poor water quality, loss of livelihood due to water scarcity and land degradation, constant uncertainty – these are the realities of life in this region. The Rogun project threatens to exacerbate these problems many times. Changing the river regime (in the case of a greater redistribution of runoff from spring-summer to winter) will require an expensive transformation of agriculture and water supply systems, and in the worst case may lead to a complete collapse of the local socio-economic structure with enormous social consequences, including forced migration. According to official estimates alone, more than 50 thousand people will be forcibly relocated from the flooding zone of the Rogun reservoir in Tajikistan, but even more people may become economic migrants from the lower reaches of the Amu Darya due to the loss of sources of income.
Of particular concern is the lack of attention to the cumulative impacts of the project. The project practically does not take into account the synergistic effect of the Rogun Dam in combination with other major water management projects, such as the Kosh-Tepa canal under construction in Afghanistan. None of the experts has yet given a reasonable forecast of what total damage the Amu Darya and its dependent ecosystems and population will experience when both of these giant projects are put into operation. Such a double blow to the Amu Darya creates a situation of enormous uncertainty and risk for the entire basin, especially in the context of projected climate change and the reduction of water resources in the region. The World Bank’s forecasts for Uzbekistan already indicate an expected decrease in water availability in the Amu Darya basin by 15-30% by 2050, which will lead to the loss of up to 250 thousand jobs in crop production alone and will require billions of investments in climate adaptation.
The Rogun Dam completion project also poses a threat to the unique biodiversity of the region. The most valuable Tugai floodplain ecosystems will be under attack, including the UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site “Tugai Forests of the Tigrovaya Balka Nature Reserve” and the Amudarya Nature Reserve on the border of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Two species of Amudarya false sturgeon, which are on the verge of complete extinction, may finally disappear due to further changes in the flow regime and sediment transfer. In order for nature to have enough water, at first it was supposed to provide spring ecological releases from the cascade of the Vakhsh Dams, but as the project progressed, this crucial element disappeared from the project documentation for the completion of the Rogun Dam, and without such artificial floods, the floodplains of the World Heritage site are doomed to desertification.
It is also important to note that, unlike the situation a decade ago, when plans for the completion of the Rogun Dam caused sharp objections from Tashkent and Ashgabat, today the official authorities of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan do not publicly oppose the completion of the dam. This silence does not mean that there are no risks; rather, it may reflect a changed geopolitical situation or a lack of transparency in interstate discussions of Central Asian water issues. However, the absence of public criticism from neighbors does not remove responsibility from both the initiators of the project and financial institutions for ensuring the environmental and social security of the Rogun Dam for the entire region. Agreements on the operating modes of the Rogun Dam have not yet been prepared and signed, which would guarantee minimization of risks to the population and ecosystems of the underlying countries.
The economic feasibility of the project in its current maximum version with a dam height of 335 m also raises questions. Although more than $ 5 billion has already been spent on the facility, the cost of completing the Rogun Dam is constantly growing, it has already exceeded $ 6 billion, which means that the electricity generated is doomed to be sold at a sufficiently high price in order to recoup the costs of building the station. But who will be the real buyer of Rogun’s expensive energy, and even in gigantic volumes? Neighboring countries are rapidly developing their own energy sector, the solvency of Afghanistan and Pakistan is questionable. Meanwhile, the Tajik authorities annually raise electricity tariffs for the local population, and this year they even introduced criminal penalties up to imprisonment for evading electricity charges.
Another important aspect: the lack of reliable information and the opportunity to express their concerns deprives residents of the region of the right to vote and the opportunity to plan their future. The applicants who filed a complaint with the Inspection Council were forced to ask for confidentiality due to fears of persecution, which speaks volumes about the state of civil society in the region.
Together with the applicants whose interests our fund represents, we believe that the World Bank and other investors should suspend financing of the Rogun Dam until a comprehensive, independent and transparent assessment of all risks, including cumulative and transboundary impacts, taking into account the consequences of climate change and the Kosh-Tepe project, is carried out. It is necessary to conduct a full analysis of alternatives, including options with a reduced height of the dam, which could minimize the negative consequences. It is extremely important to ensure real and safe participation of the public of all countries of the Amu Darya basin in the discussion of the project and to develop fair mechanisms for the distribution of benefits and compensation for damage. Ignoring these requirements can lead to an irreversible environmental and social catastrophe in Central Asia.
Alexander Anatolyevich Kolotov,
Director of the Rivers Without Borders Public Foundation (Kazakhstan)
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
