The visit of the President of Mongolia sharpens attention to the risks of the Rogun Dam
President of Mongolia Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, as part of a state visit to the Republic of Tajikistan, got acquainted with the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power station together with Deputy Prime Minister of Tajikistan Usmonali Usmonzoda. This is reported by the news agency MONTSAME.
However, according to specialists of the profile direction, the project of completion of the Rogun hydroelectric power station (Dam) in the Republic of Tajikistan causes serious concern among the countries of Central Asia due to large-scale environmental and cross-border risks. Despite the strategic importance of the Rogun Dam for the energy system of Tajikistan, its implementation may cause irreparable damage to the ecosystems and water resources of the region.
The main threat is associated with changes in the natural hydrological regime of the Vakhsh River, especially in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya. The reduction of water runoff during the construction and subsequent filling of the reservoir, which will last at least 15 years, will create an acute shortage of water in the lower reaches of the river. According to experts, only at the stage of filling the reservoir, the inflow of water to the Amu Darya delta and the Aral Sea may decrease by 25% of the current volume, which will lead to accelerated land degradation, soil salinization and increased desertification processes.
The ecological consequences will affect unique natural areas, including tugai forests and floodplain ecosystems, which are UNESCO World Natural Heritage Sites. The lack of spring floods, previously envisaged by the project documentation, threatens the disappearance of these valuable biosystems. Rare species of sturgeon living in the Amu Darya are also under threat of extinction.
Another critical aspect is ignoring the cumulative impacts of the project. In particular, the cumulative consequences of the simultaneous operation of the Rogun Dam and the Kosh-Tepa canal under construction in Afghanistan have not been estimated, which can greatly increase water scarcity and exacerbate the environmental crisis in the region.
Changing the regime of the Vakhsh River as a result of the redistribution of runoff from spring-summer to winter will require a radical restructuring of agriculture in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya. This will create a threat to food security and lead to the loss of sources of income for thousands of families. Not only ecosystems are at risk, but also the socio-economic structure of the region, which is fraught with forced migration of the population.
In addition, there is still high uncertainty regarding water resources management at the interstate level. To date, no agreements have been developed or signed regulating the operation of the Rogun Dam, taking into account the interests of all countries of the Amu Darya basin. In conditions of increasing water scarcity and climate change, the absence of such agreements may exacerbate regional instability.
Thus, the implementation of the Rogun Dam completion project without a comprehensive and independent assessment of environmental and social risks, as well as without taking into account the opinions of neighboring countries, jeopardizes the ecological balance and sustainable development of the entire Central Asian region.
INFOportal.news
Original (in Russian): Визит президента Монголии обостряет внимание к рискам Рогунской ГЭС
