How dangerous is the destruction of the dam of the Charvak reservoir?
Charvak reservoir, located in the Tashkent region of Uzbekistan, is not just a large artificial reservoir. It plays an important role in the life of the region, providing water, electricity and support to agriculture. But what happens if a dam holding 2 cubic kilometers of water suddenly fails? What consequences await the cities located downstream of the Chirchik River, such as Chirchik and Tashkent? Let’s look at what can happen, which areas will be under threat and what research says about it. These reflections were prompted by a video clip spreading on the Internet.
Charvak reservoir is located in Bostanlyk district, about 60-80 kilometers from Tashkent. It is located at an altitude of about 1620 meters above sea level. The dam that forms the reservoir has a height of 168 meters and holds about 2 billion cubic meters of water. This makes Charvak one of the largest reservoirs in Uzbekistan. The Chirchik River, which begins at the reservoir, passes through several settlements, including Khojikent, Gazalkent, Chirchik and Tashkent. If the dam collapses, a huge volume of water will rush down the river, posing a threat to everyone who lives in these places.
The city of Chirchik, where about 163 thousand people live, is located at an altitude of about 582 meters above sea level. It is located closer to the reservoir — about 28 kilometers from the dam. Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan with a population of more than 3 million people, lies below, at an altitude of 450-480 meters, and is about 60 kilometers away from Charvak. The height difference between the reservoir and these cities means that in the event of a breakthrough, the water will move quickly and with great force. This poses a serious threat to both cities, but Tashkent, as a larger and more densely populated center, may suffer more due to the scale of infrastructure and population.
If the dam of the Charvak reservoir completely collapses, 2 cubic kilometers of water will flow downstream of the Chirchik River. This will create a powerful wave that can flood everything in its path. Studies show that such a flood can lead to significant destruction. Residential buildings, roads, bridges, hospitals, schools and industrial facilities will be under threat. In Chirchik, where large factories, including chemical enterprises, are located, flooding can damage equipment and cause leakage of hazardous substances. In Tashkent, where important state institutions, banks and other key facilities are concentrated, the consequences may be even more extensive.
To understand how serious the situation can be, it is worth recalling the breakthrough of the Sardobinsky reservoir dam in 2020. Then a reservoir with a volume of less than 1 cubic kilometer caused a flood, because of which about 100 thousand people were evacuated. Thousands of homes were destroyed, agricultural land was damaged, and several people died. The Charvak reservoir is twice as large, and its destruction can lead to more severe consequences. In Chirchik and Tashkent, entire districts may be flooded, and the restoration of infrastructure will take years.
The dam of the Charvak reservoir is built of earthen materials. Studies show that such structures are vulnerable to natural factors. In Uzbekistan, where earthquakes occur, seismic activity can damage the dam. In addition, cracks may appear in earthen dams over time, especially if their condition is not checked regularly.
There is little exact data on plans in case of destruction of the Charvak dam in open sources. However, it is obvious that in order to protect Chirchik and Tashkent, it is necessary to regularly check the condition of the dam, monitor possible cracks and monitor seismic activity. Evacuation plans and public warning systems play an important role. Smaller reservoirs, such as Khojikent and Gazalkent, located downstream, can theoretically slow down the flow of water, but their volume is too small to stop flooding from 2 cubic kilometers.
For residents of Chirchik and Tashkent, the destruction of the dam can lead to the loss of housing, property and even a threat to life. In Tashkent, as in the capital, there are key facilities — hospitals, schools, government buildings — and their damage can paralyze the city. The economic consequences will be significant: flooding will disrupt the supply of water and electricity, as well as affect agriculture dependent on irrigation. Environmental problems, such as land and water pollution, can also arise due to flooding.
To assess the scale of a possible catastrophe, we can recall examples from other countries. In 1963, a landslide at the Vayont dam in Italy caused a wave that claimed the lives of about 2,000 people. In 1976, the Teton dam broke in the USA, the volume of which was smaller than the Charvak reservoir, but this led to the death of 11 people and significant damage. Given Charvak’s proximity to major cities, the consequences in Uzbekistan could be even more devastating.
Studies conducted in Uzbekistan and abroad emphasize the importance of regular monitoring of dams. Earthen dams, such as Charvak dam, require special attention because of their vulnerability to seismic impacts and erosion. Some experts note that early warning systems and evacuation plans in the region are not sufficiently developed.
Murad Teshabaev (“UPL.UZ “)
Original (in Russian): Насколько опасно разрушение плотины Чарвакского водохранилища?
