Dam(n) energy: will Tajikistan become energy-independent by 2027?

The Tajik authorities promise to achieve complete elimination of seasonal electricity shortages and “absolute energy independence” in 2.5 years. Is it achievable?

The President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, in his last message to the country’s parliament, said that, starting in May 2027, the shortage of electricity in the country would be completely eliminated and the republic would “achieve absolute energy independence.” He explained his statement by increasing electricity production at the Rogun Dam and other operating stations, as well as the construction of new facilities.

The President noted that work is currently underway on the reconstruction and modernization of the Nurek and Kayrakkum Dams and the construction of the Sebzor Dam for a total of 7.6 billion somoni. Due to this, according to him, the country’s available energy capacity will increase by 180 megawatts only in 2025.

“Along with this,” he said, “construction of a solar power plant with a capacity of 200 megawatts will begin in Sughd region in 2025.”

In addition, Emomali Rahmon stressed that “the construction of the Rogun Dam is continuing at an accelerated pace,” almost 50% of the work on the construction of this station has been completed.

The President noted that for the completion of the Dam, preferential funds from international financial organizations and development partners in the amount of $ 3 billion are attracted, including grants of $1.2 billion.

According to him, agreements have already been signed with six donors totaling about $ 1 billion, including grants worth $ 350 million. “In 2025, investments from their side will begin,” he said.

The Ministry of Energy confirms

A few days later, the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the country substantiated the president’s statement in a publication on the Khovar website.

In particular, it says that along with the reconstruction, modernization of existing and construction of new stations, the efficiency of the Vakhsh cascade of Dams will improve due to an increase in the water level in the Rogun reservoir.

The Ministry notes an increase in electricity generation due to renewable sources. It is expected that by 2030 the capacity of such stations will grow to 1,500 MW, some of them will be commissioned by the end of 2027.

According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Energy, at the moment the existing production facilities can generate 22 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year, and in a couple of years the production will increase by 8 billion kWh – up to 30 billion kWh. In addition, the Ministry of Energy considers the reduction of electricity losses to be important measures to improve the country’s energy supply.

According to the Ministry of Energy, for the first nine months of 2024, the total volume of losses amounted to 3.3 billion kWh with a total output of 17.2 billion kWh. That is, we have lost 19.4%, or almost a fifth of the energy generated in the country.

“Reducing the volume of electricity losses is considered one of the important goals, and measures are being taken in this direction through the timely implementation of projects,” the ministry emphasizes.

According to the Ministry of Energy, loss reduction projects are working in the cities of Dushanbe, Penjikent, Istaravshan, Isfara, Kanibadam, Buston, Kulyab, Bokhtar, as well as in the Dangara district. The agency also expects that by 2027 all consumers in the country will be provided with smart meters.

“The implementation of projects in this direction will make it possible to turn losses into efficient electricity,” the Ministry of Energy concludes.

It all depends on the implementation

Kamoliddin Sirodjiddinov, an independent expert on energy issues, said in an interview with Asia-Plus that Tajikistan has all the necessary conditions, resources and opportunities to fully meet the country’s electricity needs through domestic generation in the near future. However, he noted, it all depends on how much these opportunities will be realized.

Sirodjiddinov speaks not only about increasing the capacity of the Rogun Dam, but also about the implementation of other projects. These are, among other things, projects for the reconstruction and modernization of Nurek and Kairakkum Dams, as well as the commissioning of new capacities.

Regarding the Rogun Dam, the expert noted that the installation of the next, third unit, according to the latest data, will take place only in 2028. However, he noted that due to an increase in the water level in the reservoir in the next two years, the capacity of each of the two operating units of the station may increase to 140-150 MW. He stressed that they are currently operating at a minimum capacity (90 MW each). In other words, the total capacity of these units may increase by 100-120 MW.

It should be noted that the height of the Rogun dam is planned to be raised to 1185 m above sea level in 2027 from the current 1110 m (in 2024), which will significantly increase the capacity of existing units.

Sirodjiddinov, citing official data, said that the shortage of electricity in the autumn-winter period is estimated at about 2 billion kilowatt-hours, which can be covered by the planned capacity increase. Moreover, he continued, the issues related to the financing of the above-mentioned projects for the coming years have already been resolved.

Meanwhile, the expert stressed that there are important issues that the authorities do not publicly talk about. This is, first of all, the modernization of the electric power infrastructure in rural areas, that is, its preparation for additional loads in the autumn-winter period, which costs considerable financial investments.

Sirodjiddinov added that the dilapidated infrastructure, part of which is a legacy of the Soviet Union, for example, transformers and lines may not be able to withstand the additional load in the autumn-winter period.

Not everything is so rosy

Other experts treat statements about achieving energy independence in the near future with a high degree of skepticism.

They consider the hopes for a significant improvement in the country’s energy supply in the coming years due to an increase in Rogun’s capacity premature.

The funds allocated by external donors are directed to the manufacture of the next two units, the installation of which will begin only in 2028. At the same time, the funds received on the basis of the concluded agreements (about $ 1 billion) will be received in stages, in tranches. For example, in 2025 it is planned to allocate only about $ 220 million.

Further financing of the project through preferential lending to development partners also raises questions. The fact is that the attracted loans increase the ratio of external debt to GDP, and international donors, after exceeding this indicator of 40%, refuse to continue lending to countries with the level of development of Tajikistan.

There are also doubts about the significant improvement of the republic’s energy supply due to the installation of solar power plants in the next two years, as projects in this direction are still at the stage of coordination with donors.

The argument about the contribution of the small Dam “Sebzor”, which is being built in Roshtkalinsky district, is considered frivolous, since the installed capacity of this station is only 11 MW.

Due to this capacity, it is possible to cover the shortage of energy in remote areas of the region itself, as well as to electrify, perhaps, a couple of adjacent villages in Afghanistan, which, in principle, the European donors of the project hope for.

There are no questions regarding the reconstruction and modernization of the Nurek Dam and Karakum Dam, but these are far from the capacities that can greatly change the situation with energy supply in the country (the capacity of Nurek is increasing by 40 MW, and Kayrakkum – by 24 MW).

Moreover, the number of electricity consumers is growing at a high rate every year. According to official data, only in 2024 740 new production workshops and enterprises were created, which, of course, are additional consumers.

The number of household consumers is also growing – the country’s population has grown by 2.2% in recent decades, and this, by the way, is the highest figure in the post-Soviet space and one of the highest in the world.

Payrav Chorshanbev (Asia-Plus)