“Kambar-Ata-1” and seismic risks: opinions of scientists and authorities diverged
Around the construction of the Kambar-Ata HPP-1 in Kyrgyzstan, disagreements arose over the seismic safety of the project. Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, President of the National Academy of Sciences and Director of the Institute of Seismology, said that no comprehensive seismic studies had been conducted on the territory of the future construction. In his opinion, a strong earthquake could lead to the collapse of the dam, which would pose a threat to other cascade stations. The Ministry of Energy of Kyrgyzstan refuted this statement, claiming that seismic surveys at the facility were carried out by international companies.
Energy expert Ernest Karybekov in an interview with “Azattyk” (Kyrgyz edition of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty) confirmed that the place for the construction of a hydroelectric power station is seismically complex, and called unacceptable “frivolity” in the implementation of such a large-scale project. He noted that a tectonic fault runs directly under the site of the proposed dam. In addition, the geological features of the Naryn riverbed – its tortuosity and narrowness, as well as the different height of the slopes – create conditions under which the load on the dam structure increases many times. According to the expert, seismologists recommended installing special equipment and monitoring the site for at least six months, but these recommendations were not taken into account. He believes that the rush to implement the project may entail serious consequences.
Karybekov also recalled the mistakes made during the construction of the Kambar-Ata HPP-2, which led to a delay in commissioning the station at full capacity. Then, due to incomplete soil studies, it was necessary to carry out blasting operations twice, and the second explosion did not go according to plan. As a result, the height of the dam was 27 meters instead of the design 63 meters, and the missing volume of rock was filled up with the help of machinery and manually. The expert stressed that there is also a tectonic fault under the Kambar-Ata-2 HPP, and a strong earthquake can disable its equipment.
According to the updated feasibility study of the project, Kambar-Ata HPP-1 will be equipped with four hydroelectric units with a total capacity of 1,864 MW. After commissioning, it will become the largest hydroelectric power station in the country, surpassing the capacity of Toktogul HPP (1200 MW). Currently, seven large hydroelectric power plants and two thermal power plants with a total capacity of 3,892 MW operate in Kyrgyzstan. According to forecasts, in the next 10-15 years, the country’s energy needs may grow two to three times. The government has announced plans to build 48 hydroelectric power stations and 15 solar and wind farms, but the pace of implementation of these projects is behind schedule, and their completion is expected no earlier than the 2030s.
Original (in Russian): «Камбар-Ата-1» и сейсмические риски: мнения ученых и властей разошлись
