Qosh-Tepa Canal and the paradox of Central Asia’s water Policy
The construction of a large-scale Qosh-Tepa canal in Afghanistan, which is designed to irrigate more than 500 thousand hectares of arid lands, causes serious concern among the neighboring states of Central Asia, The Diplomat reports. The project involves diverting 20-30% of the flow of the Amu Darya River, a key waterway for millions of people in the region. This has profound environmental, economic and political consequences in the face of accelerating climate change and a reduction in water resources.
For Afghan peasants who have been suffering from drought and poverty for decades, the canal has become a symbol of hope. In the northern regions of the country where the facility is being built, many families survive by carpet weaving. This hard work forces women, according to some testimonies, to give opium to babies so that they do not cry and do not interfere with work. The new channel can create jobs and become an alternative to this way of earning. However, for Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, the project risks exacerbating the already critical water shortage.
Experts warn that the loss of a significant part of the Amu Darya runoff could undermine agriculture, energy and ecosystems throughout Central Asia. The absence of international agreements on water resources management involving Afghanistan leaves the region vulnerable to new challenges. Climate and water resources specialist Bulat Esekin called the construction of the canal a “historic mistake” that will lead to accelerated desertification, land degradation and climate instability. He recalled that the Amu Darya no longer reaches the Aral Sea, which is a vivid example of the consequences of irrational water use in the past. In his opinion, further reduction of the river flow will aggravate the climate crisis and endanger tugai forests and meadows.
According to hydrologist Denis Sorokin, the canal will be able to divert from 8 to 20% of the annual flow of the Amu Darya, and in dry years the downstream countries may lose up to half of their irrigation quotas. This will lead to a decrease in yields, soil salinization and a new round of ecological crisis in the river delta and the Aral Sea region. The specialist emphasizes that Afghanistan has alternatives – the restoration of traditional kariz systems and the introduction of drip irrigation with international support.
Ecologist Pavel Volkov notes that the Amu Darya ecosystem is extremely fragile. The construction of the Qosh-Tepa canal will seriously affect all coastal ecosystems, which will lead to the extinction of flora and fauna species, a reduction in biodiversity and increased desertification. New local deserts may arise, soil erosion will accelerate, and dust storms will become more frequent. Economist Abdulla Abdukadyrov believes that the problem of the region is not in the absolute shortage of water, but in its irrational use. According to him, the optimization of existing agricultural practices is much more effective than the expansion of irrigated areas at the expense of common water resources. He warns that if countries do not reconsider their approach voluntarily, “nature will do it for us – at the cost of a major catastrophe.”
These risks are already being felt in Uzbekistan. Farmers of Bukhara, Kashkadarya, Khorezm and Syrdarya regions face a chronic shortage of irrigation water, which comes every 5-10 days. Modern technologies, such as drip irrigation, are too expensive for many. In some districts of Bukhara, according to agrarians, water is redirected to rice fields, leaving cotton to dry up. Conflicts between farmers over access to water are also growing. The new Water Code, which will come into force at the end of 2025, declares water a “national treasure” and introduces strict quotas and fines, which causes agricultural producers to worry about a new financial and bureaucratic burden.
Climatologist Darkhon Yarashev emphasizes that the Amu Darya basin is already destabilized due to global warming. The temperature in the region has increased by 1.4-1.6 degrees since the 1950s, which led to a reduction in snowfall in the mountains and accelerated melting of glaciers. As a result, excess water comes earlier, and at the peak of the agricultural season there is a shortage of it. Qosh-Tepa Canal is located in a hot and arid zone, where high evaporation makes the project “climatically illogical”. Without accurate climate modeling, it can trigger desertification processes similar to the tragedy of the Aral Sea.
From a political point of view, for the current Afghan authorities, the Qosh-Tepa canal is not only irrigation, but also a symbol of sovereignty. After the ban on opium poppy cultivation, the project provides jobs and demonstrates the government’s ability to “create, not just fight.” Potentially, Afghanistan will be able to earn up to $ 500 million a year on the export of agricultural products. However, the countries of the lower reaches of the Amu Darya are not protected by binding agreements on water allocation, since Afghanistan has never been a party to the Almaty Agreement of 1992. According to political analyst Elyer Usmanov, the channel can become both a source of tension and an incentive for integration. Uzbekistan has chosen a pragmatic approach, seeking dialogue and preparing its agriculture for water conservation reforms.
Thus, the Qosh-Tepa canal embodies the paradox of the water policy of Central Asia. For Afghanistan, it is a symbol of hope, and for its neighbors – an impending crisis. The region faces a choice: either to continue the fragmented water abstraction, exacerbating common problems, or to develop coordinated actions to preserve both ecosystems and livelihoods. Without urgent cooperation, the canal risks becoming not a lifeline, but a trigger for a new major conflict over water.
Original (in Russian): Канал Кош-Тепа и парадокс водной политики Центральной Азии
