The cost of the Rogun Dam is approaching the annual GDP of Tajikistan
Since the beginning of 2025, 4.3 billion somoni has been allocated from the state budget of Tajikistan for the construction of the Rogun Dam, which is equivalent to 451 million US dollars. Taking into account these costs, the total cost of the project since 2008 has reached $ 4.5 billion. If we add to this the $ 1.4 billion invested in the project during the Soviet era, adjusted for inflation, then the total cost of building a giant hydroelectric power station on the Vakhsh River has already amounted to about $ 6 billion.
At the same time, the analysis of the project documentation carried out by experts of the international ecological coalition “Rivers without Borders” revealed obvious inconsistencies in the planning of the new budget for the completion of the Rogun Dam. For example, the total budget for the implementation of the Environmental and Social Management Plan for the next seven years is $ 275 million for salaries of relevant officials and only $ 36 million for specific activities on the ground. In total, these costs amount to less than 5% of the total cost of completing the project, which the International Monetary Fund estimates at $6.4 billion. The budget of the plan for the resettlement of 45-55 thousand people from the flood zone of the Rogun reservoir is estimated in the range of 287 to 330 million dollars, which is also about 5% of the cost of completing the project. Such low shares of expenditures on environmental and social needs are quite eloquent evidence of insufficient attention to socio-environmental standards. By the way, according to the resettlement plan, compensation for local residents from the flood zone is less than $ 1,000 per person, or less than $ 10,000 per household, which, of course, is not enough to build new housing and restore the usual way of life.
According to the latest estimates for August 2025, the full expected cost of the construction of the Rogun Dam has reached $ 10.9 billion excluding Soviet investments, and $ 12.3 billion including them. For comparison, the World Bank estimated Tajikistan’s GDP in 2024 at $ 14.2 billion, which makes the cost of this project alone comparable to the economy of the whole country.
In general, the practice of building large dams shows that underestimation of the initial cost and its subsequent excess are almost inevitable. When the government of Tajikistan resumed the Rogun Dam project in 2008, its cost was estimated at $3-4.4 billion, but by 2025 this figure has more than tripled. The average annual cost growth over the past 17 years has been 15%. Completion of the construction is currently planned by the end of 2035.
There are various scenarios for further growth of project costs. If we extrapolate the growth rate of the cost of installed capacity observed over the past 10 years (8% per year), then by 2035 the total cost of the Rogun Dam project could reach $ 23.6 billion, or $ 25 billion, taking into account the costs of the USSR. This will double the current project estimate. If we apply the global average growth rate of the cost of hydropower according to the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA, which is 5%, then the total cost of the Rogun Dam project will be $ 17.8 billion, or 19.2 billion with Soviet costs. Even with a conservative approach, which assumes only a linear increase in cost per kilowatt, the total cost of the Rogun Dam project will reach $16.8 billion by 2035, or $18.2 billion, taking into account the Soviet period. It is worth noting that all of the above calculations do not include the cost of raising capital, which can add another 20-25% to the final price.
At the same time, we must not forget about the pace of development of alternative energy sources. According to IRENA, by 2029 the total cost of installing solar panels will drop to less than $400 per kilowatt. If the $12 billion that has yet to be invested in the Rogun Dam under one of the scenarios is allocated for the construction of solar power plants at 2029 prices, these funds will be enough to create more than 30 GW of generating capacity in Central Asia. For comparison, the maximum capacity of the Rogun Dam will be 3.78 GW.
However, despite all the appeals of public organizations, the Government of Tajikistan and the World Bank have not conducted a detailed assessment of alternative options for the implementation of the Rogun Dam project, which could include the construction of a lower height dam in combination with the development of solar and wind energy.
Evgeny Simonov,
International Coordinator of the ecological coalition “Rivers without Borders”
Original (in Russian): Стоимость Рогунской ГЭС приближается к годовому ВВП Таджикистана
