Risks are growing: will China turn the Irtysh River into its domestic water source

The Eurasian Development Bank has published an analytical report in which it expressed concern about the lack of coordinated plans of China, Kazakhstan and Russia on the use of water resources of the transboundary Irtysh River, which could lead to a significant shortage of water both in Kazakhstan and the border regions of Russia.

Not the bottomless Irtysh

Another study by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) “The Irtysh River Basin: Cross-border challenges and practical solutions” has strengthened the concern of experts due to the absence at the moment of a single coordinated position of China, Kazakhstan and Russia on how the water resources of the basin of this transboundary river will be used in the future.

The Irtysh is the longest cross-border tributary river in the world, with a length of 4248 kilometers and, flowing through the territory of three countries, is very important for each of them.

“This is a very large significant river of the Eurasian continent. It originates in the mountains on the boundary of Mongolia with China, passes through the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR), through Kazakhstan, and through most of Russia,” says Arman Akhunbayev, head of the Center for Industry Analysis of the Directorate for Analytical Work of the EDB.

According to him, the future of the Irtysh River causes serious concerns, primarily among Kazakhstan and Russia. This is due to the rapid development of the XUAR of China. From 1990 to 2022, the population of this area increased by two-thirds and amounted to 25.87 million people. At the same time, the gross regional product per capita increased 28 times over the same period.

“That is, this is a phenomenal economic growth, which means it is also an increase in food consumption, water is needed for the growth of industry and for energy, just for drinking water supply. And, according to their plans, XUAR will continue to develop. A lot of money is invested there, as this is a very strategic region of China. Well, that is, they need water,” Arman Akhunbayev notes.

According to the expert, this state of affairs can significantly affect the economies of Kazakhstan and Russia downstream. If economic growth in the XUAR continues at the same pace, water runoff may decrease significantly over time.

“The average long—term term in China is being formed – from 8 to 9 and a half cubic kilometers at the moment. But China is gradually increasing its water intake and potentially it can take up to 7 cubic kilometers. That is, for Kazakhstan there will be about two to three cubic kilometers at most. In dry years it can be up to one cubic kilometer. In turn, about 25-26 cubic kilometers are formed on the territory of Kazakhstan. This is the volume that comes to the boundary with Russia. And there is a risk that if China starts to reduce at home, Kazakhstan may reduce the flow of water by almost half to the territory of the already border regions of Russia,” explains Arman Akhunbayev.

Little water – a lot of problems

The expert believes that the fears have a very real basis, since Kazakhstan and Russia have already assessed the preliminary risks of such a development for their countries.

“For Kazakhstan, the Irtysh is 45% of agricultural production. Also, 10% of electricity is produced on the Irtysh. In Russia, as far as we understand, in the Omsk region there is a very clear understanding of the importance of this basin, because there 90% of their consumption depends on the water resources of the Irtysh,” Akhunbayev adds.

Another risk for Kazakhstan, which carries an increase in consumption of Irtysh water by China, is that it may affect the sustainability of water supply in a number of regions of the country.

“There are such concerns about the cities of Eastern Kazakhstan – Ust-Kamenogorsk and Semey. Pavlodar. It is even possible to influence the water supply of Astana, because it is very tightly based on the Irtysh basin through the Satpayev canal on the one hand, and on the other through the Yesil— Irtysh tributary,” Akhunbayev notes.

But this is not all the possible consequences, the expert assures.

“There is a significant risk of stopping shipping. It exists now on the territory of Kazakhstan, and then on the Russian territory it is developed even more actively. And, of course, if there is not enough water, the level in the river will decrease, which will affect the quality of navigation or its termination,” says Arman Akhunbayev.

Trilateral agreement: China is still against

In the presence of all the above risks, the EDB experts are particularly concerned that there is no clear, jointly approved interstate action plan for the further use of the transboundary Irtysh basin between China, Kazakhstan and Russia.

“The issue here is more about China, which has not signed any of the international conventions on the management of transboundary water resources, although they exist and certain articles provide the necessary level of water supply to a particular country. And here the question is how to get to this. Or another thing that we consider to be the optimal format – a trilateral agreement on the Irtysh. We are striving for this, but China avoids this format. He believes that he has only one partner on this river — Kazakhstan, which borders on the river, and that Russia is no longer related to the Irtysh. Although, of course, this is not the case,” explains Arman Akhunbayev.

It is for this reason that Kazakhstan today has to work with its neighbors on the problems of the Irtysh in a bilateral format – separately with China and separately with Russia.

For example, certain agreements already exist with China and a number of joint actions are being implemented to ensure the safest level of water supply to the territory of Kazakhstan. However, due to China’s non-participation in international conventions and the absence of a tripartite agreement, there is still no confidence that they will be respected.

Things are much better in relations with Russia.

“Kazakh-Russian relations on this issue are at a very good level today. There are interstate working groups, commissions that work on joint Kazakh-Russian water resources. The Irtysh, of course, is one of the key basins on which work is underway. (…) Regular meetings are held, there are many agreements on joint management, on interaction, on the exchange of information. Even the joint construction of a hydroelectric power station with the participation of the Russian side is being discussed now,” Arman Akhunbayev notes.

What is the importance of information exchange

The environmental issue also plays an important role in the joint use of the Irtysh basin by China, Kazakhstan and Russia. Even now, when it comes to the future possible fate of this transboundary river, the ecological situation throughout its basin is already causing serious concern to experts.

“In addition to lowering the water level in the Irtysh, the role is played by the fact that there are a lot of industrial enterprises along the river. And already today the ecological situation is not the most favorable. That is, all indicators of water pollution are not very good. This problem accumulates along the entire river, and already very polluted water comes to the territory of Russia. When the level decreases, the natural ability to self-purify water decreases. With a decrease in its volume, pollution and the concentration of harmful substances increases very sharply,” Akhunbayev warns.

In particular, for this reason, the EDB supports the start of negotiations between China, Kazakhstan and Russia on the development of the so-called soft infrastructure along the Irtysh.

“Rigid infrastructure includes canals, dams, reservoirs, hydroelectric power stations and so on. We say that it should also be developed and exploited. And soft infrastructure is a joint water resources management system that is developing between countries. This is a joint monitoring of the water level and its pollution. Countries need to understand how much water and at which hydrological posts passes. Today there are many means for this, including digitalization of the entire monitoring system,” says Arman Akhunbayev.

This approach is called the basis for a normal dialogue in the EDB. According to experts, it will allow solving any problems that arise in a timely manner.

“If we receive signals about what is happening in the upper reaches, we will be able to take the necessary actions in time and prepare for certain phenomena a little lower. This is the same exchange of hydrological information between countries within the framework of monitoring, these are transparent regulatory mechanisms, joint scientific research, staff training together. A kind of dialogue of the intangible side of cooperation,” the expert notes.

A tempting alternative for China

The absence of a trilateral agreement between China, Kazakhstan and Russia on the joint use of the Irtysh and the position of the Celestial Empire, which so far has not sought to sign any international documents on this subject, does not yet make it possible to solve the problem that has arisen on the transboundary river once and for all. And the more China makes a fence out of it, the more actively the opinion will be discussed that it intends to make the Irtysh its internal source.

“There is unofficial information that is “wandering” that, perhaps, China will even turn the Irtysh on its territory into an internal source. That is, if the water needs increase very much, he will just take everything away. This risk, they have been talking about it since the Soviet period, has now intensified,” says Arman Akhunbayev.

Nevertheless, Kazakhstan and Russia have something to offer their neighbor in order to exclude such a development, while not hindering the further economic development of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

Taking into account the fact that China is constantly searching for new logistics routes, it will be offered to create a full-fledged multimodal transport corridor “Russia-Kazakhstan-China” and use the navigable potential of the rivers of the Ob-Irtysh basin in it. This route is really strategic for the Celestial Empire, because it can become a link between the Northern Sea Route and the Silk Road.

“We believe that it is the development of this corridor that can become the basis for reaching agreements on the joint use of water resources between the countries. We want to show that this corridor is important not only for Kazakhstan and Russia, but it is of great importance for China as well. If we can prove this, then it is possible that China will still agree to some kind of agreements to ensure an optimal water level that is reliable and safe, including for shipping,” Akhunbayev explains.

According to him, the Chinese authorities are well aware of how profitable such an offer is, as they have repeatedly noted that access to the Northern Sea Route is part of their plans to develop access to foreign markets. This is also because it is a new, short and cheap way to deliver goods to European markets and beyond.

“If we show that this initiative is very important for the western regions of China, then perhaps he will reconsider the use of the Irtysh. Moreover, it is now very actively developing its internal regional water supply system, which is very connected, very complex, and powerful. Through the system of canals and water pipes, he transfers water from surplus regions to scarce ones and is already building such an internal system for transferring water to the XUAR,” Akhunbayev notes.

According to the expert, the Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan has already discussed this project with the Chinese authorities and they, in principle, agreed on the need to develop shipping and are ready to support the proposed initiative. The construction of the fourth China-Kazakhstan border crossing is even being discussed within its framework.

Alexander Miroglov (Sputnik Kazakhstan)